- Laptop sales are set to grow even more next year, but not all will be AI PCs, report claims
- Windows 10’s official 2025 end of life will force many to upgrade
- Businesses can’t see the benefit of expensive AI PCs just yet
After a stagnant period, the global laptop market is forecast to grow by 4.9% to 183 million units in 2025, however it might not be for the reason you think.
Although AI PCs are stealing the headlines, new research from TrendForce suggests commercial upgrade cycles and the October 2025 Windows 10 end-of-life could be the key driving forces.
If projections turn out to be accurate, 2025 would see better growth than 2024, which is on track for a 3.9% year-over-year increase in shipments to 174 million units.
PC upgrades are still being driven by Windows 10 EOL
The report claims high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties have tampered with consumer demand in 2024, but the hope is that reduced political uncertainty following the US presidential election and Federal Reserve rate cuts could stimulate more cash flow next year, leading companies that were previously holding off on upgrades to take action.
Most prominent is the Windows 10 end-of-service deadline, as the ancient software still somehow accounts for three-fifths (61%) of all installs, which is nearly double Windows 11’s 36% market share. Still, the figures are finally heading in the right direction for Microsoft after slow uptake of its flagship AI-packed operating system.
On the other end of the scale and despite industry hype, AI-integrated laptops are not yet a major market driver. Currently carrying a 10-15% premium over their non-AI counterparts and offering little in terms of perceivable upgrade given that they’re still in their infancy, businesses are failing to see the clear use cases for them.
An Intel study also recently found that many of those who have bought into AI-capable PCs are failing to see the benefits due to an initial learning curve.
During this year’s third quarter, industry tracker Canalys found that AI PCs accounted for one in five new shipments; Windows Copilot+ PCs accounted for more than half (53%) of those.
“Despite the positive momentum, significant work must still be done to convince both channel partners and end customers of the benefits of AI-capable PCs,” noted Principal Analyst Ishan Dutt, adding how the upcoming Windows 10 transition will lead to potential growth in the consumer and business sectors.